Energy Supply Security Index: An Analysis for Turkish Economy

Abstract

Energy consumption in Turkish economy has been rising continuously and composition of energy mix will be substantially changed in forthcoming periods due to environmental concerns and economic sustainability. On the other hand, energy shortage expected to increase because of accelerating economic activities and increase in population. In addition, structure of energy markets and demand/supply balance in Turkey are closely related with financial stability (current account deficit). Therefore, there is need to balance between energy consumption-economic growth and environment duality in energy policy. Conversely, any disruptions in energy supply will lead to destabilize economy, interruption in output and suspend social life in the long term. Accordingly, rising and ennsuring energy security would be helpful for Turkish economy. In this frame we assesed energy security in line with Cabalu (2010) on the basis of energy intensity, import dependency, domestic production and geopolitical risk indicators. Lastly, we derived a composite security index from them. Results showed that Turkey is vulnerable in terms of fossil fuels due to insufficient domestic production and huge share in the national energy mix. On that note, policy makers can target possible sources of supply disruptions and mitigate their effects by taking measures against risks in energy security.