Energy Sufficiency in the Passenger Transport of Lithuania

Abstract

This paper aims to understand the significance of energy sufficiency (ES) in passenger transport for the long-term resolution of energy, climate, and sustainable development issues in Lithuania. It computes related indicators, by fixing the passenger-kilometres (pkm) travelled by various modes of transportation and applying a scenario analysis with the MESSAGE model. The findings indicated that the country’s final energy consumption (FEC) in transportation could be reduced by 21.8% by 2050 due to slowing growth rate of distances travelled by passenger car but increasing use of public transport and bicycles. This would result in a decrease in the growth rate of primary energy consumption (PEC) by half (to 0.3% a year), an increase in the use of renewable energy sources (RES) to 67.2% in the PEC structure, savings of oil products by 6.4 TWh, and savings of new electricity generation capacity by 550 MW. Furthermore, 20 MtCO2eq. in greenhouse gas (GHG) emission reductions could be realised between 2021 and 2050. To take advantage of the potential of ES, the policy measures of passenger car demand containment and a shift to non-motorised and less polluting modes of transportation should be implemented. Furthermore, priority should be given to policy measures that encourage use of public transportation.