Energy shortages and aggregate demand: Output loss and unequal burden from HANK

Abstract

I study the effects of a reduction in energy supply using a quantitative Heterogeneous Agents New Keynesian (HANK) model with energy consumption by households and firms. I find that changes in aggregate demand due to an increase in energy prices and labor market adjustments amplify the macroeconomic effects of the energy shock, but these effects remain manageable. In the model a 10% reduction in the energy supply leads to a Gross National Income (GNI) loss in range between 0.8% and 2%. The economic burden is highly nonlinear across the income distribution: most households face similar and relatively contained costs, while low-income households bear the heaviest burden. I show that monetary and fiscal policy can mitigate the economic costs and the unequal effects of energy shortages.