Energy Security Assessment Based on a New Dynamic Multi-Criteria Decision-Making Framework

Abstract

Access to energy resources and broadly understood energy security are some of the critical factors influencing the economic development of countries. This article deals with the problem of assessing the energy security of countries, considering this problem in various periods of time, examining the past, present and forecasted future conditions at the same time. For this purpose, the Dynamic Multi-Criteria Decision Making (DMCDM) methodology was developed and applied, based on the classic and fuzzy Multi-Criteria Decision Making (MCDM) methods and the International Energy Security Risk Index (IESRI). In particular, the Simple Additive Weighting (SAW)/Fuzzy SAW and New Easy Approach to Fuzzy PROMETHEE II (NEAT F-PROMETHEE) methods were used. These methods are significantly different from each other in the calculation procedures used. The study showed that methodological differences between these methods cause large differences in the results of the assessment of energy security of countries. However, both methodological approaches indicated the high energy security of New Zealand, Norway, Denmark and the United States, and the very low security of Ukraine, Thailand and South Korea. The results of the assessment of energy security of countries over the 2015–2025 period are the main practical contribution of this article. The scientific contribution of the article consists in developing a framework for dynamic energy security assessment that allows for the aggregation of many periods of time and that defines the aggregation strategies, capturing data from the past, present and future state forecasts while taking into account changes in the weights of criteria and changes in the sets of alternatives and criteria.