Energy security and potential supply disruption: A case study in Japan

Abstract

This paper provides new quantitative perspectives on energy security. We conduct an analysis in the event of energy resource supply disruption in exporting countries for Japan. The study showed that oil stockpiling by the government and firms plays an important role in energy security; the analysis shows that oil supply disruption does not cause latent demand of oil products — except naphtha — after the supply disruption. However, we found that the supply interruption of town gas caused by liquefied natural gas supply disruption is a possible weak point in Japan's energy security. This would mainly impact a variety of non-energy intensive sectors such as the customer sector. We also show that the energy security of the supply is degraded by the unplanned outage of nuclear power stations, as seen from the disaster at the Fukushima Daiichi Nuclear Power Station. Nuclear power generation and renewable energy power generation can mitigate the impact of energy resource supply interruption in the power generation sector.