Energy scenarios… can solar break the paradigm?

Abstract

Typically it has taken 25 years after commercial introduction for a primary energy form to obtain a 1% share of the global market. In OECD countries the average car lasts 13 years. The third wave could surprise everyone with new possiblities, including such things as nanotechnology and alternative energy forms. By 2050 the energy industry will be very different, in ways difficult to comprehend today. ‘Thinking the unthinkable’ it isn't, but anticipating the unknowable is a fair assessment of Shell International's Energy Needs, Choices and Possiblities report, which focuses on two energy scenarios - Dynamics as Usual and Spirit of the Coming Age, using both to make strategic decisions as to the mindset and actuality of the energy scenario in the year 2050.