Energy relations between China and the countries along the Belt and Road: An analysis of the distribution of energy resources and interdependence relationships

Abstract

The Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) forms the core of China's foreign policy and future foreign cooperation, and energy cooperation is an important component of the BRI. Energy security is closely related to the interdependent relations between countries. The present paper investigates energy interdependent relations between China and the countries along the Belt and Road using data collected in the BP Statistical Review of World Energy, between 2000 and 2015. The main results are as follows: (1) Abundant proven reserves of energy resources exist in these countries, which were equivalent to 758.73 billion tons of standard coal in 2015, accounting for 52.27% of the world. The distribution of these resources presents a pattern with two centers—one in Russia, and one in West Asia and the Middle East. (2) Established interdependence relations exist between China and the countries along the Belt and Road in terms of energy cooperation. China has imported 437.21 million tons of standard coal from these countries and their guarantee degree to China's energy security is 58.42%, of which 13.56% refers to coal, 73.37% to oil, and 13.06% to gas. Meanwhile, their dependence degree in energy exports to China was 13.56%, or 11.15% for coal, 14.92% for oil, and 10.55% for gas. An interdependence relation thus exists between China and these countries, and the degree of mutual dependence between them was 0.23 (0.22 for coal, 0.13 for oil, and 0.38 for gas), locating China in a relatively passive position with respect to the countries along the Belt and Road as a whole, but a relatively active position in relation to individual countries (with the exception of Russia). Our findings are useful to the tasks of identifying the spatial distribution pattern of energy in countries along the Belt and Road, assisting in the promotion of energy cooperation between China and these countries, and the future construction of the BRI.