Abstract
The article describes the past and future energy and natural resources policies in Russia. The authors consider the main trends and prospects in the state energy policy. The article shows the relationship between the National Welfare Fund growth and the decline in consumption. The authors argue the ability of raw materials revenues to solve problems of social financing. The analysis relies on the VAR and VECM-model to test the generated hypotheses. The model explores changes in energy prices in proportion to changes in individual factors of social and savings policies, taking into account the random component. We take the two most important elements of population income - these are social payments and wages. The article provides an opportunity to reflect on the ability of the innovative distribution of oil and gas revenues to change current social policies. The study complements our knowledge of the lack of social financing and the need to increase the real level of income.
Highlights
Raw materials production is a potential way to finance social needs
The main advantage of this model is the possibility of simultaneous regression analysis of several explanatory variables, as well as freedom from restrictions imposed on systems of equations, which are the predecessor of the vector autoregression (VAR) model (2)
We are studying the possibility of the social policy transformation towards direct financing methods due to energy prices rising
Summary
Raw materials production is a potential way to finance social needs. But often, raw materials revenues are allocated to other needs. Considering the distribution of oil revenues, we can see that the relatively high oil prices in 2018 allowed to replenish the Russian National Welfare Fund (NWF) up to 4 trillion rubles. It represents about a third of all potential revenues of the country. In 2019, it expects to increase the volume of the NWF by another 3 trillion and to reach 7% of GDP. Other extractive countries accumulated their funds in petrodollars. After the NWF reaches 7% of GDP, funds will be directed for investment goals. While other extractive countries build up their national funds by investing
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