Energy policy modelling in developing and industrializing countries

Abstract

A large number of models have been developed and used for energy policy planning, in a regional, national or international level, in order to cope with the broad variety of issues related to the energy problem. Energy models belong to the class of policy models, which address fuzzy and complex issues involving many non-quantitative factors, such as political issues, behavioural aspects, etc., as well as many uncertainties and lack of rigorous knowledge concerning the structure of the reference system, and the interrelationships of its elements. The role of energy policy models is very important, since they enhance understanding and communication, and they assist the policymakers to review plausible future configurations of relevant decision variables and parameters. In this paper one of the most important areas of energy modelling is investigated, that concerning the interactions between energy and economy in the group of Developing and Industrializing Countries (DIC's). It is pointed out that energy models used in the DIC's must capture the particular features of energy policy in these countries, such as rapid economic development fueled by expensive, depleting and often imported energy resources; dependence on foreign resources such as energy, capital, technology, etc.; management of indigenous resources, social structural changes, rapid population growth, urbanization and industrialization. In order to improve energy models and enhance their contributions in policy analysis, it is proposed that modelling efforts should be directed towards a better understanding of the energy-economy relationships in the DIC's, as well as towards the development of validated data bases.