Energy mix with the vulnerability of nuclear power utilization

Abstract

Domestic supply disruption particularly associated with nuclear energy utilization has been considered as a new risk after Fukushima disaster. Future energy mix should be discussed from the perspective of the interaction between quantitative analysis on vulnerabilities of nuclear systems and policy narratives. This paper proposes a new approach for the analysis on energy mix including the impact of vulnerability of nuclear power utilization based on the basic energy plan in Japan. The model is established using system dynamics for the quantitative analysis on 4 indicators: CO2 emissions, cost, diversification, and nuclear trouble vulnerability. Finally the best mix is derived and discussed through the multiple combination of thermal and nuclear installed capacity. This paper may aid policymakers with an adequately designed energy policy in the country where nuclear power is to be installed.