Energy meteorology and economics - Transdisciplinary success from the Hans-Ertel-Centre for Weather Research

Abstract

<p>The research area Climate Monitoring and Diagnostics of the Hans-Ertel-Centre for Weather Research advances the fundamental science basis for energy meteorology and translates the physical knowledge into stakeholder-relevant information for a climate neutral energy system in Europe. We show recent successes building on a kilometre-scale reanalysis dataset for Europe that was developed by the HErZ research area at the Universities of Cologne and Bonn, and produced by the German Weather Service. Paired with contemporary models for renewable power production, we carry out transdisciplinary research across meteorology and economics to answer urgent questions for the energy transition from currently primarily fossil fuels to a future energy system that relies more on renewables energy sources. Our research follows a seamless approach ranging from the assessment of weather and climate processes for wind and photovoltaic power production via economic system modelling and price estimates to communicating our research results to stakeholders in industry and politics, engaging in public outreach on national level, and teaching the next generation about our HErZ research. Scientific results from our works highlight (1) balancing potentials of natural variability and extremes in the production of wind and photovoltaic power across Europe, (2) distinct synoptic-scale weather patterns for dark doldrums with a possibility of compensating power shortfalls with sufficient storage capacities for a secure power supply, (3) nocturnal low-level jets having both beneficial and adverse impacts on wind power production, and (4) different biases in gridded irradiance datasets for estimating photovoltaic power production in comparison to on-site measurements. The research area closely collaborates with the Institute of Energy Economics at the University of Cologne (EWI). This cooperation informs the research agenda from an energy system perspective and facilitates the rapid transfer of research results into policy-relevant work, such as e.g. a contribution to EWI's report for the "dena Study Integrated Energy Transition" (dena, 2021). The dena Study, commissioned by the German Energy Agency (dena), has been widely received in the German policy debate, and it raised substantial public awareness e.g. by way of press releases and interviews for major newspapers. Future directions of the fruitful collaboration will involve blending climate change scenarios into the work of the research team for knowing possible extreme weather impacts on a redesigned energy system before they occur.</p>