Energy in Our Future

Abstract

After reviewing the history of human energy demand, it is concluded that, if the'current rates of growth of energy and population were to continue for 50 years beyond 1970, per capita consumption of energy in coal equivalents would rise to 54 tons in the rich countries and to 1.4 tons in the poor. By that time the population of the world would be 10.5 billion. Consumption of energy in the poor countries alone would rise to a level considerably higher than total consumption in the world today, while total world consumption of energy would approach the equivalent of 100 billion tons of coal annually. The evolution of the ''energy trap'' and the ''food trap'' and their relationship are discussed. Sections are devoted to the life expectancy of petroleum and natural gas in the U.S. and their global life expectancies. Substantial quantities of hydrocarbons have still been left behind in exhausted reservoirs and resources of petroleum in oil shale are large, but it will require two key ingredients to win these resources: time and money. Any major changes in primary energy sources will require substantial alterations in governmental policies including energy pricing policies, very large capital investments, and the resolution ofmore » many legal and political problems as well as the solution of a number of technical difficulties. The availability of alternative energy resources is discussed. Recycling of all materials in the years ahead is predicted. All of these steps will increase our energy expenditures and insure for all humanity a cleaner environment and a steady flow of raw materials. The potential of an ultimate energy source of solar radiation or nuclear fusion, called ''solfus'' by Hafele (EAPA 1:01654) is reviewed. 39 references. (MCW)« less