Abstract
The climate system depends at an extremely complex set of long-term (about 30 years or more) physical processes in the ocean-land-atmosphere systems, which, in turn, are influenced mainly quasi-bicentennial variations of the total solar irradiance (TSI). The TSI decline phase started around 1990. The onset of the Grand minimum phase of the TSI quasi-bicentennial cycle of the Maunder type is predicted in the 27th ±1 cycle in 2043±11. Long period of deficiency of absorbed solar energy since about 1990 was not compensated by a decrease in the Earth’s thermal energy emitted into space, since it does not have time to cool down due to thermal inertia, and it continues to radiate heat in the same high volumes. Solar cooling has started. As a result, the Earth has, and will continue to have, a long negative energy balance, which will ensure a slight decrease in temperature. However, this slight decrease in temperature is extremely important as a trigger mechanism for the subsequent chain effects of secondary causal effects of feedback that will greatly enhance the cooling. This will certainly lead to the onset of a phase of deep cooling of the climate approximately in the year 2070±11. The temperature is always cooler (with some time delay) in the during long-term periods of TSI decline phase of the TSI quasi-bicentennial cycle and warmer in the during periods of its growth phase. The climate sensitivity to the atmospheric carbon dioxide abundance, due to the significant overlap of the spectral absorption bands of the water vapor and carbon dioxide, decreases as a result of a significant increase in the concentration of water vapor directly in the near-surface layer of the troposphere during warming. The impact of a long-term cloud coverage growth on climate change is also virtually nonexistent.
Highlights
An extremely complex and non-linear climate system depends on the variation of a complex the numerous longterm geophysical processes in ocean-land-atmosphere systems, which, in turn, are influenced by many different factors
The quasi-bicentennial variation of the total solar irradiance (TSI) and the changes associated with its longterm impact on the surface and in the Earth’s atmosphere (changes in the Earth’s Bond albedo and the concentration of the main greenhouse gas (GHG) – water vapor in the first place) is one of the main sources of thermal instability and disruption Earth energy balance
The total energy of solar radiation in each subsequent cycle will gradually decrease, reaching a minimum level of 2043±11. This together with by active impact of the feedback effects will certainly lead to the onset of the deep cooling phase of the new Little Ice Age approximately in the year 2070±11, when the average temperature across the globe will decrease by approximately 1.3°C (Figure 4)
Summary
An extremely complex and non-linear climate system depends on the variation of a complex the numerous longterm (about 30 years or more) geophysical processes in ocean-land-atmosphere systems, which, in turn, are influenced by many different factors. Being a kind of amplifier of variations in the thermal regime of our planet, it significantly increases the amplitude of corresponding quasi-bicentennial temperature changes and in particular when cooling, leads to decrease the concentration of water vapor and other GHGs in the atmosphere in accordance with relation of the Clausius– Clapeyron and the law Henry. This in turn will greatly increase cooling. The climatic effect of feedback effects depends on the duration of the phases of the quasi-bicentennial solar cycle and can multiply enhance cooling (warming) caused by the direct influence of the corresponding long-term change in TSI. Where l is the depth of the active layer of the Ocean, which is equal to 500-1000 m under the current conditions [17, 29]
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