Energy-growth nexus in Australia and New Zealand for the past 150years-evidence from time-varying and quantile Granger causality analysis.

Abstract

Using historical data on energy from (Malanima 2020) and GDP from the Maddison Project Database, this paper investigates the energy-growth nexus in a less-studied region, mainly Australia and New Zealand, since 1870. The long annual series allow meaningful application of recently developed time-varying and quantile Granger causality analysis. Results indicate that there is a bi-directional Granger causal relationship between economic growth and energy, coal, and oil consumption at both ends of the distribution, and during various time periods over the past 150years. Little evidence is found on the Granger causal relationship from gas consumption to economic growth, but some evidence on the direction from economic growth to gas consumption. The Granger causal relationships between electricity consumption and GDP change over time, but results suggest much closer links between the two in most recent decades, and big (positive and negative) changes in electricity consumption significantly Granger causes economic growth.