Abstract

In this work we propose an input–output linear programming model to study the energy resilience of a multi-region economy that accounts for the inter-sectoral and inter-regional dependencies in the economic structure. The model computes the impacts of random energy production disruptions on the entire multi-region input–output system in the form of final demand deficits. We then propose a formulation to evaluate the energy resilience of the system based on computing the largest set of disruptions, or what is termed as resilience guarantee levels, that can be sustained by the system within given demand deficit budgets. A computational study is then performed using a 3-region-42-sector model based on China's 2012 multi-regional input–output table. The results show that regional trade barriers, coal-to-gas switch policies and technological efficiency of selected energy-intensive industries can influence China's energy resilience significantly. This can provide the policy-makers important guidance on improving energy resilience in a systematic manner.

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