Energy-demographic history of the modern civilization

Abstract

The continuous increase in human energy production per caput is accompanied by an increase in the world population. The work considers the demographic history of civilization as a function of the growing production and use of the energy by mankind. The evolution in the «energy-man» system took place relatively safely for the biosphere and a man up to the value of the per caput energy consumption of 11,000 kW*h/year*person that was achieved by civilization in 1950. Modern high per caput energy consumption of civilization is achieved at the cost of the loss of the environment-forming functioning by the biosphere and at the cost of the loss of the psychophysical health of a person. We can see the prospects for development of civilization through analysis of the energy-demographic history of mankind over the past 200 years. The features of fertility and mortality in the world are considered depending on the per caput energy consumption with a forecast for the future. Two limits to the growth of global energy production were formulated in terms of preventing harm to humans. Corresponding analytical dependencies are proposed. To prevent an ecological and demographic catastrophe and ensure transition of civilization to sustainable development, it is proposed to reduce the world energy production to 140*1012 kW*h/year with a decrease in per caput energy consumption to a relatively safe level of 18,000 kW*h/year*person, which existed in society in 1970. After this «step back» civilization will enter a state of relatively safe existence.