Energy demand of transport until 2030 — Scenario results from the iTREN-2030 project

Abstract

The aim of this paper is to describe a projection of energy demand of transport that was developed with the iTREN-2030 modelling toolset and to analyse the impact of transport policies and the renewable energy package. The paper is based on the EU-co-funded project ‘iTREN-2030’ that aimed at developing consistent energy and transport scenarios for the EU27, applying a set of different models. The iTREN-2030 modelling toolset includes POLES, a simulation model for the development of long-term (2050) energy supply and demand scenarios of the world, TREMOVE, ASTRA and TRANS-TOOLS. These models were applied in an interactive way to create two main scenarios • the reference scenario includes only policies approved by mid 2008 (Reference Scenario). It is a set of projections under given, reasonable assumptions concerning both the socio-economic environment and a kind of frozen policy environment. • the renewable scenario considering policies which are likely to be implemented until 2025 (Integrated Scenario). Several policy instruments are implemented on top of the measures included in the reference scenario. On the transport side the regulation of CO2 emission for different types of transport vehicles was considered. On the energy side the renewable energy package has a major impact on the energy system. It aims at reducing the GHG emissions (by 20% compared to the GHG emissions of 1990) and increases the share of renewable energy support schemes (20% renewable share of final demand) both until 2020. Furthermore, the Integrated Scenario considers the global economic crisis. The comparison of the two scenarios clearly indicates significant changes in the energy and transport system like: • In the Integrated Scenario, final energy demand in the transport sector will see negative growth rates, whereas it would continue to grow in the Reference Scenario. • Alternative transport fuels like biofuels, gas and electricity will play a more important role in the integrated scenario. As a consequence of the lower demand and accelerated decarbonisation, GHG of transport will be reduced by some 7% between 2005 and 2020, and by 12% by 2030.