Energy Demand Modeling for the Transition of a Coal-Dependent City to a Low-Carbon City: The Case of Ulaanbaatar City

Abstract

Cities have committed to reducing greenhouse gas emissions and promoting renewable energy. However, many cities continue to rely on fossil fuels, while renewable energy sources are not used or are unable to meet the demand that fossil fuels provide. Depending on the geographic location, climate, and resources, cities must find their own path to energy sustainability. The city of Ulaanbaatar is one of the coal-dependent cities, its electricity and heat consumption mainly coming from coal. In this study, the future final energy demand of a coal-dependent city is identified and analyzed to make it a low-carbon city. Long-term energy demand projections for Ulaanbaatar to 2050 are conducted using the model for analysis of energy demand (MAED) model. Four scenarios are developed based on the existing local and national policies in the socio-economic and energy sectors, as well as more ambitious policy and technology measures recommended by various studies in the MAED_D model. The final energy demand is calculated to be 548, 460, 334, and 264 PJ in 2050 for BAU, REF, NDC, and RM scenarios, respectively, compared to 135 PJ in 2020. The results show that the high penetration of electricity and renewable energy, energy efficiency measures, and energy intensity reduction in all sectors can significantly reduce the future energy demand and help the transition towards a low-carbon city.