Abstract
With the Paris Agreement entering into full force, South Korea must submit its target greenhouse gas emissions for commercial buildings by 2030 to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change. To determine this target, the annual energy demands must be forecasted through appropriate models; the development of these models is the focus of our study. We developed a system to calculate energy demand forecasts by searching for suitable methods. We built distinct energy forecast models for petroleum, city gas, electricity, heat, and renewable energies. The results show that the most appropriate variable for the petroleum energy model is energy trend. Moreover, the annual increase rate of petroleum energy demand from 2019 to 2030 was forecasted to be −1.7%. The appropriate variable for city gas energy model was the floor area of commercial buildings, which was forecasted to increase at an annual average growth rate of 0.4% from 2019 to 2030. According to the forecast results of energy demand from 2019 to 2030, the annual average growth rates of electricity, heat, and renewable energy demands were 2.1%, −0.2%, and 1.3%, respectively.
Highlights
IntroductionIts consumption has increased exponentially over the last 1990 years, with a significant increase in national greenhouse gas emissions, thereby affecting the environment negatively
Energy is an indispensable part of our daily lives
Energy consumption differs by building use, and residential, commercial, and public buildings require separate energy demand forecasts
Summary
Its consumption has increased exponentially over the last 1990 years, with a significant increase in national greenhouse gas emissions, thereby affecting the environment negatively. To address this problem, the Paris Agreement was adopted by global consensus in December within the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change. As a signatory to this agreement, South Korea is obligated to submit its sector-wise target greenhouse gas emissions for the period until 2030 [1]. In South Korea, the building sector accounts for approximately 20% and 40% of the national total energy and electricity consumption, respectively. Studies on energy demand forecasts, for the building sector, are essential [3,4]
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