Energy Demand and Greenhouse Gas Emissions Analysis in Mongolia: A LEAP Model Application

Abstract

The energy system of Mongolia faces two challenges to meet domestic energy demand and to reduce greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions. Electricity and heat in Mongolia are generated mainly by coal-fired combined heat and power plants. Despite a low share of global greenhouse gas emissions, Mongolia is experiencing an increase in greenhouse gas emissions per capita. This paper presents the results of the analysis of the greenhouse gas emissions scenario of the energy system. The analysis employed the Low Emissions Analysis Platform (LEAP) to model the energy generation mix and scenarios up to 2050. The analysis utilizes 2018 as the base year and builds on a set of forty-nine mitigation measures identified by the Government of Mongolia. Implementation of these measures is expected to reduce greenhouse gas emissions by 21.5 million tonnes of CO2-eq by 2030 and 36.5 million tonnes of CO2-eq by 2050 compared to the baseline.