Energy demand and GHG emissions by 2030: a scenario analysis using extended snapshot tool towards sustainable low carbon development in Pengerang

Effectively addressing today’s energy challenges requires advanced technologies along with policies that influence economic markets while advancing the public good.

Carbon verification agencies and power enterprises play a crucial role in the process of reducing carbon emissions. Under government regulation, this paper explores the low-carbon behavior of carbon verification agencies and power enterprises, considering factors such as rewards and penalties, reputation, collusion, and costs. We first constructed a carbon emission reduction game model using evolutionary game theory and replicated dynamic equations to analyze the interactions between carbon verification agencies and power enterprises under government oversight. Subsequently, this study used theoretical derivation and numerical simulation to investigate the model’s evolution and the influence of various factors on the system’s evolution results. It is found that, firstly, the carbon emission reduction game between the carbon verification agency and the power enterprises will eventually be stabilized in two states (authentic verification and carbon emission reduction) and (fraudulent verification and no carbon emission reduction), and the specific stabilization of which state is closely related to the selection of the initial values of the parameters. Secondly, within a certain range, increasing the government’s rewards and penalties, increasing the reputation loss of carbon verification agencies and power enterprises, reducing the benefits of collusion between two parties, reducing the cost of low carbon disclosure and emission reduction of power enterprises will help the construction of a cooperative pattern of low carbon emission reduction and authentic supervision of carbon verification agencies.

The utilisation of natural energy not only can reduce energy consumption in buildings but also can lower carbon emissions from the use of fossil fuel energy for building services. It is believed that with appropriate design and a good attitude of building users, the role of renewable energy in reducing carbon emissions will be maximised. This study proposed the implementation of Zero Energy Buildings (ZEB) concept in the initial stage of building design by considering buildings’ form and façade design in relation to daylighting, natural ventilation and thermal design of buildings, and photovoltaic placement to save energy and to produce electrical energy in the designed building. In this study, ZEB Concept is treated as a secondary consideration in producing the architectural design for Biohydrogen Research Centre. The primary design generator is based on the philosophy of chemical bonds form representing biohydrogen chemical bonds. For a successful implementation of the ZEB concept in the Biohydrogen Research Centre design, both active and passive means are utilised in the building design. For passive means, daylighting and natural ventilation strategies were applied. While for active means, photovoltaic panels were employed as the primary electrical energy generation. Energy demand scenarios were predicted and calculated by the amount of energy used for lighting, air conditioning, and other appliances in the building. The total area needed for photovoltaic installation was obtained by balancing the energy demand prediction with the expected energy generation. The resulting design showed a promising outcome where the building is expected to achieve surplus energy with a total of 845,595.5 kWh electricity per year.

The utilisation of natural energy not only can reduce energy consumption in buildings but also can lower carbon emissions from the use of fossil fuel energy for building services. It is believed that with appropriate design and a good attitude of building users, the role of renewable energy in reducing carbon emissions will be maximised. This study proposed the implementation of Zero Energy Buildings (ZEB) concept in the initial stage of building design by considering buildings’ form and façade design in relation to daylighting, natural ventilation and thermal design of buildings, and photovoltaic placement to save energy and to produce electrical energy in the designed building. In this study, ZEB Concept is treated as a secondary consideration in producing the architectural design for Biohydrogen Research Centre. The primary design generator is based on the philosophy of chemical bonds form representing biohydrogen chemical bonds. For a successful implementation of the ZEB concept in the Biohydrogen Research Centre design, both active and passive means are utilised in the building design. For passive means, daylighting and natural ventilation strategies were applied. While for active means, photovoltaic panels were employed as the primary electrical energy generation. Energy demand scenarios were predicted and calculated by the amount of energy used for lighting, air conditioning, and other appliances in the building. The total area needed for photovoltaic installation was obtained by balancing the energy demand prediction with the expected energy generation. The resulting design showed a promising outcome where the building is expected to achieve surplus energy with a total of 845,595.5 kWh electricity per year.

Investigation on implementing hydrogen technology in residential sector

The global increase of carbon emissions needs to be reduced to keep incremental global warming below 2 degrees. However, in the last decades, Indonesia’s energy supply and demand have been highly dependent on fossil fuels, contributing to high carbon emissions. Most of the non-renewable energy demand comes from transportation and electrification. While in drilling activity, diesel engines produce carbon emissions for mobilization, drilling operation, and site electrification. Carbon emissions reduction is part of the policy of several giant energy companies to achieve net-zero emissions to support environmental sustainability, echoed by Paris Agreement 2015. This preliminary study aims to comprehensively evaluate the activities that generate carbon emissions in geothermal drilling projects. With the case study, the authors offer a numerical approach of emissions calculation that covers from the planning phase until post-operation calculation, including logistics and equipment used in the drilling project. As a result, the authors provide an integrated analysis regarding efficiency options for geothermal drilling operations. This study also proposes a simple economic analysis to achieve lower carbon emissions. From an operational perspective, emissions reduction could be achieved by making resources movement and transportation more efficient, thus directly reducing fuel consumption and emissions. Furthermore, biodiesel and renewable energy to substitute diesel will lower emissions and energy consumption for regular generators and transportation. Moreover, several operational efficiency options that can help reduce carbon emissions are discussed in this research. Then, the digitalization era also plays an important role in increasing efficiency for lowering carbon footprint. Briefly, this research is considered useful for the industry that seeks to deliver an integrated effort to reduce carbon emissions during a geothermal drilling operation. It will serve as a reference to increase awareness in mitigating emissions in geothermal drilling projects to achieve lower carbon drilling operations.

PDF HTML阅读 XML下载 导出引用 引用提醒 “双碳”目标下闽三角碳排放脱钩状态及驱动机制分析 DOI: 10.5846/stxb202201270257 作者: 作者单位: 作者简介: 通讯作者: 中图分类号: 基金项目: 国家重点研发计划项目（2016YFC0502902） Decoupling status and driving mechanisms of carbon emissions in the Golden Triangle of Southern Fujian under "carbon peaking and neutrality" goals Author: Affiliation: Fund Project: the National Key R&D Program of China (2016YFC0502902) 摘要 | 图/表 | 访问统计 | 参考文献 | 相似文献 | 引证文献 | 资源附件 | 文章评论 摘要:快速城市化背景下，建设低碳城市群是实现"双碳"目标的最佳方式。在碳排放核算的基础上，使用Tapio脱钩模型和LMDI方法对闽三角以及厦门、漳州和泉州的脱钩状态和碳排放的驱动机制进行了研究。主要结论如下：（1）2005-2017年闽三角碳排放和人均碳排放均持续增加，二者有相同的变化趋势。闽三角的工业中心泉州有最高的碳排放和人均碳排放。发展型城市漳州碳排放最低，但碳排放和人均碳排放增长率均最高。服务型城市厦门碳排放增长率最低。（2）闽三角的脱钩状态逐渐改善，平均脱钩系数为1.03，脱钩状态为扩张性连接。厦门、漳州和泉州的平均脱钩系数分别为0.45、2.70和1.10，3个城市分别以弱脱钩、扩张负脱钩和扩张性连接状态为主。（3）人均GDP和人口规模是闽三角碳排放的正向因素，能源结构和能源强度是负向因素。正向因素的贡献在下降，负向因素的贡献在升高。人均GDP和能源结构分别对漳州和厦门碳排放有最强的促进和抑制效应。能源强度对3个城市碳排放变化的效应不同。（4）人口扩张促进碳排放增加，使碳排放与经济发展无法脱钩。人口规模对闽三角碳减排无脱钩努力。能源结构优化和能源强度下降有助于碳排放与经济发展脱钩，是闽三角碳减排的强脱钩努力和弱脱钩努力。能源强度对泉州碳减排无脱钩努力。优化能源结构是闽三角实现碳减排和"双碳"目标的关键。已经脱钩的厦门宜尽早制定碳达峰行动计划，引领闽三角的碳达峰行动。漳州可通过升级产业结构实现减排。泉州必须提升能源效率才能降低碳排放。 Abstract:Developing low-carbon urban agglomeration is the best way to achieve "carbon peaking" and "carbon neutrality" goals under the background of rapid urbanization. Based on carbon emissions accounting, the Tapio decoupling model and the Logarithmic Mean Divisia Index (LMDI) method are utilized to analyze the decoupling status and driving mechanisms of carbon emissions of the Golden Triangle of Southern Fujian (GTSF), Xiamen, Zhangzhou and Quanzhou. The main findings are as follows:(1) Carbon emissions and carbon emissions per capita both kept increasing from 2005 and 2017, with the same trend. Quanzhou, an industrial center of the GTSF, has the highest carbon emissions and carbon emissions per capita. Zhangzhou, a developing city, has the least carbon emissions but the highest growth rate of carbon emissions and carbon emissions per capita. Xiamen, a service-oriented city, holds the lowest growth rate of carbon emissions. (2) Decoupling status of the GTSF has improved. The average decoupling index of the GTSF is 1.03, and the decoupling status is dominated by the expansive connection. The average decoupling indices of Xiamen, Zhangzhou and Quanzhou are 0.45, 2.70 and 1.10, respectively. The dominant decoupling status of the three cities is weak decoupling, expansive negative decoupling, and the expansive connection, respectively. (3) Gross domestic product (GDP) per capita and population size are positive factors of carbon emissions of the GTSF, while energy structure and energy intensity are negative factors. The contribution of the positive factors is decreasing, while the contribution of the negative factors is increasing. GDP per capita and energy structure have the strongest promoting effects and inhibiting effects on carbon emissions of Zhangzhou and Xiamen, respectively. The effects of energy intensity on carbon emissions of the three cities are different. (4) Population expansion leads to an increase in carbon emissions, which is not conducive to the decoupling of carbon emissions and economic development. Population size has no decoupling efforts on carbon emissions reduction of the GTSF. The optimization of energy structure and the decline of energy intensity contribute to the decoupling of carbon emissions and economic development. Energy structure and energy intensity are the strong decoupling efforts and the weak decoupling efforts of carbon emissions reduction of the GTSF, respectively. Energy intensity has no decoupling efforts on carbon emissions reduction of Quanzhou. For the GTSF, optimizing energy structure is the key to realize carbon emissions reduction and "carbon peaking and neutrality" goals. It is suggested that Xiamen, which has been decoupled, should formulate carbon emissions peaking action plans, and lead the peaking actions of the GTSF. Zhangzhou can achieve carbon emissions reduction by upgrading industrial structure. Carbon emissions reduction of Quanzhou depends on the improvement of energy efficiency. 参考文献 相似文献 引证文献

Can we live within environmental limits and still reduce poverty? Degrowth or decoupling?

In this study, strategies for meeting the carbon peak and carbon neutral targets are developed through an in-depth analysis of future energy demand and carbon emission scenarios in Jiangsu Province. The LEAP model was used to forecast energy demand and carbon emissions under different scenarios from 2021 to 2060. Under the baseline scenario, the energy demand of key industries in Jiangsu Province showed a high rate of growth, with energy consumption increasing by 2.35 times from 2021 to 2060, with an average annual growth rate of 3.46%. In contrast, under the Policy Implementation, Sustainable Development, and Innovation Promotion scenarios, total energy consumption decreased significantly by 45.98%, 58.96%, and 86.13%, respectively, demonstrating varying degrees of energy-saving potential. Projections of carbon emissions showed that the total carbon emissions under the baseline scenario showed a continuous growth trend, reaching 599 million t in 2060, with an average annual growth rate of 4.47%. In contrast, under the Policy Implementation, Sustainable Development, and Innovation Advancement Scenario, carbon emissions were significantly lower, as evidenced by a peak reaching 2025 or 2030 and a gradual decline. The industrial sector decreased year by year, the transportation sector showed an increasing trend, and the construction sector was relatively stable. Overall, with industrial restructuring and technological upgrading, Jiangsu Province is expected to achieve a gradual reduction in carbon emissions, but the increasing trend of carbon emissions from the transportation sector requires further monitoring.

Population growth and trends are centrally important to the environment because it helps to determine the environmental impact of human activities. In this study, the World Bank database has been used. Here, carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions, and energy intensity (EI) are considered as environmental indicators. The population indicators are the proportion of the population aged 15-64 years, and the percentage of the urban population. The Gross Domestic Product (GDP) is considered a development indicator in a country. This study tries to identify the association between population environment and development. Correlation analysis has been employed to know association and Path analysis is used to determine the important factors for environmental impacts such as carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions. The result presents that the zero-order correlation exists among energy intensity (EI), the proportion of the population aged 15-64 (P15-64), urbanization (UR), gross domestic product (GDP) per capita (US$), total population (P) ) and carbon dioxide (CO2) emission in Bangladesh and India. It is observed that 8 paths for Bangladesh and 7 paths for India out of each 12 hypothesized paths are found to be statistically significant. In Bangladesh, the total effects of exogenous variables like as energy intensity (X1) and population aged 15-64 (X2) are observed negative direction on carbon dioxide emissions (X6) and the remaining variable like as urbanization (X3) is observed as positive direction on carbon dioxide emissions. However, in India total effects of these two exogenous variables population aged 15-64 (X2) and urbanization (X3) are observed positive direction on carbon dioxide emissions (X6) and the remaining variable like as energy intensity (X1) is observed negative direction on carbon dioxide emissions (X6). The total effects of endogenous variables like as GDP per capita (X4) show a negative direction on carbon dioxide emissions and population (X5) shows a positive direction on carbon dioxide emissions. The study demonstrates that CO2 emission is important for environmental impact in Bangladesh and India. There is a strong association between population, GDP per capita, energy consumption and urbanization and CO2 emission in Bangladesh and India. The factors of CO2 emissions play an important role in environmental degradation. Thus, attention should be focused on using low energy consumption, and proper urbanization, particularly on modern technology which assures fewer uses of CO2 emissions in Bangladesh and India.

Low-carbon economic growth in cities is important for reduction of carbon emissions in China. As the best practice city in China, Shenzhen city has experienced rapid economic growth with low carbon emissions. The study aims to evaluate the performance of Chinese cities on low-carbon economic growth through the case study of Shenzhen city. The study carries out the Tapio decoupling model for analyzing decoupling state, and uses the Kaya-Logarithmic Mean Divisia Index decomposition model to determine the main driving factors of carbon emissions in Shenzhen. Results indicate that Shenzhen has greatly decoupled carbon emissions with economic growth. The analysis of driving factors of carbon emission shows that the declining energy intensity and the upgrading industrial structure effectively hamper the increase of carbon emissions in Shenzhen. The decline in energy intensity in Shenzhen may come from an improvement of production efficiency of the industries. However, the irrational energy consumption structure, fast-growing economic output, and industry scale are hampering the low carbon emissions of Shenzhen. All estimated industries are highly dependent on coal and oil although some industries have slightly increased their proportion of clean energy consumption. Pursuing more clean energy consumption in the industry will be a key development strategy for reducing emissions in the future. Moreover, as Shenzhen is a fast-growing city, the increasing economic output and industry scale are inevitable. Changing people's way of living could also help in reducing carbon emissions in cities.

China’s petrochemical industries are playing an important role in China’s economic development. However, the industries consume large amounts of energy and have become primary sources of carbon emission. In this paper, the change in carbon emissions from China’s petrochemical industries between 2000 and 2010 was quantitatively analyzed with the Log-Mean Divisia Index method, which was decomposed into economic output effect, industrial structural effect and technical effect. The results show that economic output effect is the most important factor driving carbon emission growth in China’s petrochemical industries; industrial structural effect has certain decrement effect on carbon emissions; adjustment of industrial structure by developing low-carbon emission industrial sectors may be a better choice for reducing carbon emissions; and the impact of technical effect varies considerably without showing any clear decrement effect trend over the period of year 2000–2010. The biggest challenge is how to make use of these factors to balance the relationship between economic development and carbon emissions. This study will promote a more comprehensive understanding of the inter-relationships of economic development, industrial structural shift, technical effect and carbon emissions in China’s petrochemical industries and is helpful for exploration of relevant strategies to reduce carbon emissions.

In this paper, provincial panel data for China during 1995–2015 and the time substitution data envelopment analysis (DEA) model were used to measure the influences of China’s carbon emissions reduction policy on economic growth under various reduction targets and to determine optimal economic growth and optimal carbon emissions of each province. In addition, this paper empirically examines the factors that influence the optimal economic growth and carbon emissions. The results indicate that not all provinces will suffer from a loss in gross domestic product (GDP) when confronted by the constraints of carbon emissions reductions. Certain provinces can achieve a win-win situation between economic growth and carbon emissions reductions if they are allowed to reallocate production decisions over time. Provinces with higher environmental efficiency, higher per capita GDP, smaller populations, and lower energy intensity might suffer from a larger loss in GDP. Therefore, they should set lower carbon emissions reduction targets.

A multi-objective optimization framework for regional land-use allocation: Fully utilizing terrestrial vegetation to mitigate carbon emissions

Water–energy nexus: The coupling effects of water and energy policy applied in China based on a computable general equilibrium model