Energy Consumption Trends and Decoupling Effects between Carbon Dioxide and Gross Domestic Product in South Africa

Sue-Jane Lin,Mohamed Beidari,Charles Lewis

doi:10.4209/aaqr.2015.04.0258

Abstract

ABSTRACTThis study evaluates the occurrence of decoupling of CO2 emissions from Gross Domestic Product (GDP) in South Africa (SA) for the period of 1990 to 2012 by using the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD) and Tapio methods, and identifies the primary CO2 emissions driving forces by the Kaya identity. The results showed a strong decoupling during the period of 2010–2012, which is considered as the best development situation. In 1994–2010 SA had a weak decoupling; while during the period 1990–1994, the development in SA presented an expansive negative decoupling state. The comparison of the OECD and Tapio’s methods showed well-correlated results but differed in their applications; however, the OECD method appeared as the simpler one. The results of Kaya identity demonstrated that the increase in population, GDP per capita and deteriorating energy efficiency were the main primary driving forces for the increase of CO2 emissions. It is suggested that SA can expand the share of renewable energy and promote green energy technology in addition to better strategies of the demand side management (DSM) to raise the efficiency of energy consumption as well as CO2 emission reductions. The methods used in this research can be applied to other countries with similar situations to evaluate the trends of energy consumption and CO2 emissions and an aid to decision-making tool for better sustainable development.

Highlights

South Africa's economy has grown rapidly since the end of the apartheid era in 1994, and the country is one of the most developed nations in Africa
This study evaluates the occurrence of decoupling of CO2 emissions from Gross Domestic Product (GDP) in South Africa (SA) for the period of 1990 to 2012 by using the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD) and Tapio methods, and identifies the primary CO2 emissions driving forces by the Kaya identity
Since its economy is heavily dependent on its energy sector that accounts for 15% of the country's GDP with coal being the dominant energy source; this makes the SA case study very important and interesting (Department of Energy and Minerals, South Africa, 2008)

Summary

Introduction

South Africa's economy has grown rapidly since the end of the apartheid era in 1994, and the country is one of the most developed nations in Africa. In 2013, 72% of South Africa's total primary energy supply (TPES) came from coal, followed by oil (22%), natural gas (3%), nuclear (3%), and renewables (less than 1%, primarily from hydropower), according to BP Statistical Review of Energy (2014). The same figure shows that the CO2 emissions from natural gas (for 2010–2012) are very low because it was directly tied to liquefaction plants until 2009 according to the International Energy Agency (IEA, 2014). This high dependence on coal makes the country very high carbon-intensive and one of the highest emitters of CO2 emissions when compared to many

Objectives

Methods

Results

Conclusion