Energy Consumption in the Transport Sector: Trends and Forecast Estimates

Abstract

The paper is concerned with the prospective estimation of energy consumption in the transport sector. To determine the long-term energy consumption targets for transport in Russia, it is important to analyze global trends in the dynamics of energy intensity and energy consumption, and consider the possibilities of their application in Russia, given its specific features. New statistical data and the latest long-term energy forecasts made by Russian and international energy organizations are used to identify sustainable trends. In recent years, the requirements for the environmental friendliness of energy carriers used in the transport sector have increased. The electrification of transport is becoming more common, and the current forecasts predict a rapid growth of the electric car fleet in the future. The use of new types of fuels in cars will require qualitative transformations in the energy sector according to new environmental requirements. The forecast estimates of possible consequences of the adoption of electric vehicles in Russia are given. This paper proposes a methodological approach to forecasting of energy consumption in the transport sector. A general scheme of interrelations between models designed to make forecast of energy demand at the country level is presented with the integration of dynamic macroeconomic model and the simulation model of energy consumption into a single calculation suite. The model of the economy is based on an input output model for 25 branches of the economy, including the transport sector by type of activity. It covers air and land transport (rail, road, pipeline and water transport). A quantitative assessment of the possible dynamics of energy consumption of passenger and freight transport in Russia for the future up to 2035–2040 is presented.