Energy consumption and CO2 emissions reduction potential of electric-drive vehicle diffusion in a road freight vehicle fleet

Abstract

Road freight transport is dominated by gasoline- and diesel- fueled internal combustion engine vehicles, presenting a challenge for decarbonization. There is a growing interest in electric-drive vehicles as alternative to reduce CO2 and local pollutant emissions in road freight transport. In this research, a vehicle stock turnover model is used to estimate the potential of electric-drive vehicles to reduce energy consumption and CO2 emissions in a road freight vehicle fleet; focusing on Japan as a case of study. In the Base scenario, tank to wheel CO2 emissions are reduced 51.9% between 2012 and 2050 driven by vehicle stock reduction, hybrid electric vehicle diffusion and vehicle fuel consumption improvement. By 2050, tank to wheel CO2 emissions can be reduced up to 55.8% with the diffusion of battery electric vehicles and fuel cell electric vehicles. Despite of aggressive electric-drive vehicle deployment, fossil fuels account for more than 52% of the energy consumed in all scenarios in 2050.