Abstract

The potential implications of energy cost and availability for new housing design over the rest of the century are examined. The discussion is based on the premise that the rise in the price of fuels relative to that of labor and materials is focusing the attention of home builders and home buyers on total life-cycle costs. This shift in emphasis from first-cost, short-term, and speculative factors to the energy conservation technologies stimulated by life-cycle cost analyses portends a number of major physical changes in new residences over the next few decades. This thesis is developed by looking first at the housing market, the historical influences of certain building practices, and fuel price changes in recent years. Attention is directed primarily to single-family detached dwellings including mobile homes, single-family attached homes, townhouses, garden apartments, and low-rise housing units. Next, major design parameters related to energy are examined in the context of a simplified life-cycle cost model, with numerical examples. The constraints imposed by existing technology, building and occupancy practices, and energy costs on total life-cycle costs are examined for their implications to future housing design practices. Then, the technological opportunities for energy conservation as a design consideration are discussed, with anmore » emphasis on identifying the extent to which many design parameters related to energy will change in the next few decades. Finally, the question of the implications of energy conservation on new housing design, ownership, and operation and on the identification of several specific research and policy issues is examined. 26 references. (auth)« less

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