Energy assessment and greenhouse gas predictions in the automotive manufacturing industry in Iran

Abstract

The automotive manufacturing industry responsible for a large share of fuel and electricity consumption and is a major source of greenhouse gasses emission. Considering the Global Climate Action, the estimation and reduction of greenhouse gasses are necessary for major industrial sectors. In this regard, greenhouse gas emission is calculated for the second-largest automaker in Iran (SAIPA automotive manufacturing company). Extensive data sets were collected from 2015 to 2019 including purchased electricity, the number of vehicle production, refrigerant gas leakage, water and fossil fuel consumption (gasoline, diesel oil, and natural gas). The energy consumption was fully assessed, and the indirect emissions estimated by tracing purchased electricity sources to enhance the accuracy of the carbon estimation Moreover, the Radial Basis Function (RBF) network model was employed as a novel approach for precise prediction of the CO 2 e emission. Results revealed that the carbon intensity was 0.69 tons of CO 2 e per produced vehicle and purchased electricity and production processes accounted for 50.5% and 49.5% of greenhouse gas emission, respectively. In addition, the average amount of water consumed, purchased electricity, and natural gas consumption per produced vehicle during the study period were 6.11 m 3 , 0.57 MWh, and 134.80 m 3 , respectively. Results demonstrate that the RBF network model successfully captured 88 percent of the variation of the CO 2 e emission. Three scenarios were proposed to project CO 2 e emission by 2030. The findings showed that CO 2 e emission was supposed to increase by 150%, 219%, and 285% under optimistic, realistic, and pessimistic scenarios, respectively. The assessment of energy consumption showed that the application of renewable energy sources could decrease the carbon intensity by 12.6%.