Abstract
The Australian Government is about to release Australia’s first sustainable population policy. Sustainable population growth, among other things, implies sustainable energy demand. Current modelling of future energy demand both in Australia and by agencies such as the International Energy Agency sees population growth as one of the key drivers of energy demand. Simply increasing the demand for energy in response to population policy is sustainable only if there is a radical restructuring of the energy system away from energy sources associated with environmental degradation towards one more reliant on renewable fuels and less reliant on fossil fuels. Energy policy can also address the present nexus between energy consumption per person and population growth through an aggressive energy efficiency policy. This paper considers the link between population policies and energy policies and considers how the overall goal of sustainability can be achieved. The methods applied in this analysis draw on the literature of sustainable development to develop elements of an energy planning framework to support a sustainable population policy. Rather than simply accept that energy demand is a function of population increase moderated by an assumed rate of energy efficiency improvement, the focus is on considering what rate of energy efficiency improvement is necessary to significantly reduce the standard connections between population growth and growth in energy demand and what policies are necessary to achieve this situation. Energy efficiency policies can only moderate unsustainable aspects of energy demand and other policies are essential to restructure existing energy systems into on-going sustainable forms. Policies to achieve these objectives are considered. This analysis shows that energy policy, population policy and sustainable development policies are closely integrated. Present policy and planning agencies do not reflect this integration and energy and population policies in Australia have largely developed independently and whether the outcome is sustainable is largely a matter of chance. A genuinely sustainable population policy recognises the inter-dependence between population and energy policies and it is essential that this is reflected in integrated policy and planning agencies.
Highlights
Australia is well endowed with energy resources and energy is relatively cheap and readily available to consumers and businesses
Increasing the demand for energy in response to population policy is sustainable only if there is a radical restructuring of the energy system away from energy sources associated with environmental degradation towards one more reliant on renewable fuels and less reliant on fossil fuels
Energy policy can address the present nexus between energy consumption per person and population growth through an aggressive energy efficiency policy
Summary
Australia is well endowed with energy resources and energy is relatively cheap and readily available to consumers and businesses. These are key factors underpinning Australian economic growth. Demand for liquid transport fuels has increased much faster than refinery capacity and an increasing proportion of Australia’s refined petroleum products demand is imported in addition to a growing volume of crude oil. Crude oil exports from newer fields have been unable to keep up with import growth and there is a growing deficit in trade of oil and petroleum products embedded within an overall positive energy trade balance. Australia’s capacity to meet persistent trade deficits in liquid fuels may change, especially as the world moves to lower global greenhouse emissions. The immediate concern is that the demand for energy continues to grow strongly under the influence of strong population growth and policy settings that reinforce present consumption habits
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