Energy and climate: Today's, problem, not tomorrow's

The steadily rising price of a tankful of gas reminds us that the days of cheap and abundant energy are coming to an end. Nevertheless, a number of recent studies conclude that we can continue to meet our energy needs through judicious use of the world's ample remaining stocks of fossil fuels, mainly coal, during a long transition to a sustainable global energy system. Damage to the earth's climate may be the major flaw in this strategy. Burning of fossil fuels returns to the atmosphere carbon that was extracted by ancient plants many millions of years ago, and thus increases today's airborne concentration of carbon dioxide. We have already produced an estimated 13 or so percent increase over pre-industrial levels. Although a minor constituent of the atmosphere, carbon dioxide plays a significant role in the earth's heat budget, and increases in its concentration are expected to lead to a warmer earth. A typical scenario critically studied by a panel of the U.S. National Research Council chaired by the late Jule Charney in the summer of 1979 supposes that continued growth in fossil fuel combustion would lead to a doubling in airborne concentrations by some time in the first half of the next century. The panel concluded that a global wanning of about 3 degrees Centigrade would result, with significant regional changes in precipitation, temperature, and other climatic characteristics. The panel members tried but were unable to find any factors that could reduce these expected changes to negligible proportions. An international...