Energy and Climate Change Scenarios in the Mediterranean: An opportunity for cooperation

Abstract

Abstract Background Climate change is modifying weather patterns, producing far-reaching effects on the environment, the economy and society as a whole, endangering global livelihoods, health, food and energy security, and water resources. Europe, and the Mediterranean will not escape the effects of climate change, which will aggravate risks and threats to human security (mainly public health) and regional stability. Actual cooperation and appropriate instruments are needed to address these threats. In this context, higher temperatures and extreme weather phenomena, such as severe droughts and heat waves will inevitably cause water scarcity in these regions and significant health issues. The degradation of the environment will foreseeably create security and health crisis scenarios, arising from energy shortages, air quality, water stress and food supply problems. Methods A scenario analysis was designed to address the relation between security, healthcare, energy and climate change, which contains multiple dimensions. We did a review of the literature and use it to feed the scenario analysis development, to better describe a phenomenon that is complex, with many possible paths and outcomes. Results Among the possible scenarios, two were considered: one based on collaboration and the other, on conflict. Several dimensions were examined to address both cooperation instruments and the consequences of non-cooperation: Energy production (e.g., conventional versus renewable) and use; water resources and food security; the environment (air quality) and the impact on health; Population and migration flow. Conclusions Climate change is a serious threat. To achieve and implement cooperation, there must be multilateral collaboration between the EU and the other Mediterranean countries, including stronger investment flows from north to south, in conjunction with the promotion of both energy efficiency policies and better healthcare system in the south.