Abstract
The long-term impact of high-energy consumption in the manufacturing sector results in adverse environmental effects. Energy consumption and carbon emission prediction in the production environment is an essential requirement to mitigate climate change. The aim of this paper is to evaluate, model, construct, and validate the electricity generated data errors of an automotive component manufacturing company in South Africa for prediction of future transport manufacturing energy consumption and carbon emissions. The energy consumption and carbon emission data of an automotive component manufacturing company were explored for decision making, using data from 2016 to 2018 for prediction of future transport manufacturing energy consumption. The result is an ARIMA model with regression-correlated error fittings in the generalized least squares estimation of future forecast values for five years. The result is validated with RSS, showing an improvement of 89.61% in AR and 99.1% in MA when combined and an RMSE value of 449.8932 at a confidence level of 95%. This paper proposes a model for efficient prediction of energy consumption and carbon emissions for better decision making and utilize appropriate precautions to improve eco-friendly operation.
Highlights
Transport manufacturing is one of the most important sectors in the industry, affecting economic growth and job creation, which impact energy consumption [1]
We have shown that auto-regressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) models can forecast and predict the electricity generated and carbon emissions for a five-year period based on the previous collected data
The approach is iterative with identification of simple ARIMA models using data plots, autocorrelations, partial autocorrelations, and other information based on estimated appropriate values
Summary
Transport manufacturing is one of the most important sectors in the industry, affecting economic growth and job creation, which impact energy consumption [1]. This paper focuses on the automotive sector due to its high contribution to the growth of the transport manufacturing industry and the economic growth of South Africa, accounting for 29.9% of the manufacturing output of South Africa in 2018 [2]. The automotive industry accounting for 6.4% of the gross domestic product (GDP) of South Africa in 2019—4% through manufacturing and 2.4% through the retail market [3,4]. While energy efficiency is recognized globally as a critical solution to reducing energy consumption, the management of global carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions complements climate change policies, decreases the costs of reducing carbon emissions, and improves economic competitiveness. The adoption of modern, emerging technologies is critical for the present and the future [6]
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