Abstract
Abstract. Ancient civilizations may have dispersed or collapsed under extreme dry conditions. There are indications that the same may hold for modern societies. However, hydroclimatic change cannot be the sole predictor of the fate of contemporary societies in water-scarce regions. This paper focuses on technological change as a factor that may ameliorate the effects of increasing water scarcity and as such counter the effects of hydroclimatic changes. We study the role of technological change on the dynamics of coupled human–water systems, and model technological change as an endogenous process that depends on many factors intrinsic to coupled human–water dynamics. We do not treat technology as an exogenous random sequence of events, but assume that it results from societal actions. While the proposed model is a rather simple model of a coupled human–water system, it is shown to be capable of replicating patterns of technological, population, production and consumption per capita changes. The model demonstrates that technological change may indeed ameliorate the effects of increasing water scarcity, but typically it does so only to a certain extent. In general we find that endogenous technology change under increasing water scarcity helps to delay the peak of population size before it inevitably starts to decline. We also analyze the case when water remains constant over time and find that co-evolutionary trajectories can never grow at a constant rate; rather the rate itself grows with time. Thus our model does not predict a co-evolutionary trajectory of a socio-hydrological system where technological innovation harmoniously provides for a growing population. It allows either for an explosion or an eventual dispersal of population. The latter occurs only under increasing water scarcity. As a result, we draw the conclusion that declining consumption per capita despite technological advancement and increase in aggregate production may serve as a useful predictor of upcoming decline in contemporary societies in water-scarce basins.
Highlights
The question of how climatic change affects societies has grown in importance in recent years and is expected to gain ever-increasing attention in years to come
We argue in this paper that in some cases technological change may delay a society’s response to change under increasing water scarcity, which may give an impression that it is on top of change
In order to demonstrate and defend this claim, we propose a simple model of endogenous technological change, along the lines of Romer (1990) and Eicher (1996), but framed within the context of sociohydrology and change (Montanari et al, 2013)
Summary
The question of how climatic change affects societies has grown in importance in recent years and is expected to gain ever-increasing attention in years to come. The changing values and norms, via changes in the dynamics of human consumption and environment quality fed back to changes in the delivery of ecosystem services This led to a continued decline in population and rice production within the basin. The model shows the evolution of a society under increasing water scarcity by endogenous feedbacks between population growth and technological change. The second part of the paper demonstrates this through a targeted sensitivity analysis of the model This analysis supports our argument that model outputs are robust and that declining consumption per capita is a credible predictor of dispersal of socio-hydrological systems under increasing water scarcity, such as the Murrumbidgee Basin. We begin with a discussion on the motivation and assumptions behind the socio-hydrological model based on endogenous technology and population growth that is introduced in this paper
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