ENDOGENOUS POLICY AND CROSS‐COUNTRY GROWTH EMPIRICS

Abstract

ABSTRACTIn this paper, it is shown that it matters a lot for empirical research whether policy is taken to be exogenously set or to be endogenous. In the model investment depends on policy that depends on economically important fundamentals and is, thus, endogenous. The paper analyzes what might be concluded when treating policies as randomly assigned, when in fact they are not. When policy is endogenous, the measured effects of policy on growth will generally be biased. Based on the model and OECD data, the signs of the biases for tax variables and for redistribution are derived. Based on these signed biases, the paper discusses some empirical results that seem puzzling from a theoretical viewpoint. The paper argues that regressing growth on policy can still yield important information if policy endogeneity is taken into account.