Endings and Surprises of the Russia–Ukraine War

Abstract

It is unclear how the Russia–Ukraine war will unfold in the east or the south, or how recent Ukrainian successes will affect Russia’s future course. However the war eventually ends, it will have fundamental implications for global order. It is important, therefore, to imagine how it might end, with special attention paid to the potential for strategic surprises. Despite Ukraine’s stunning victories in the east, a continuing war of attrition could resume. Another possibility is a ‘frozen’ conflict. The most promising scenario involves a negotiated settlement based on effectively monitored peace terms registered in an internationally based political agreement. Major and regional powers, non-official actors and international institutions may have roles to play. The United Nations Security Council could be key in legitimising a political settlement and monitoring its implementation.