Abstract
The most important foundation for attacks on the decision of President Harry S. Truman to use atomic bombs againstJapan is the claim that conventional bombing and naval blockade had brought Japan to the point of by the summer of 1945, that Truman knew this, and that he dropped the bombs to intimidate the Soviet Union, not to end the war. This early surrender counterfactual hypothesis comes from publications of the United States Strategic Bombing Survey (USSBS). The USSBS was headed in Japan, and its official reports edited and controlled, by Paul H. Nitze. This article examines the evidence on which Nitze claims to have based his early surrender hypothesis. The USSBS began as an effort by strategic bombing advocates to establish their craft as the ultimate arbiter of all future
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