Abstract

Most mathematical models for the transmission and maintenance of microparasitic infections take the host population to be unchanging in time. In recent years, however, populations of human hosts have been increasing relatively rapidly, especially in many developing countries. In this paper we indicate how the framework of conventional compartmental models for microparasitic infections may be extended to include the effects of host population growth. We give both analytic and numerical illustrations of the ways in which the age-specific incidence of infection, the average age at infection, and other epidemiological quantities are likely to change over time in response to such overall growth in host population density. In particular, we show that the basic reproductive rate of the microparasite, R 0, is to a good approximation given as R 0⋍ B/ A, where A is the average age at infection and B is the reciprocal of the birth rate.

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