Abstract
BackgroundThis study describes the time trend of renal replacement therapy for end-stage renal disease (ESRD) in the Provence-Alpes Côte d’Azur region (PACA) between 2004 and 2015, and forecasts up to 2030.MethodsA longitudinal study was conducted on all ESRD patients treated in PACA and recorded in the French Renal Epidemiology and Information Network (REIN) during this period. Time trends and forecasts to 2030 were analyzed using Poisson regression models.ResultsSince 2004, the number of new patients has steadily increased by 3.4% per year (95% CI, 2.8–3.9, p < 0.001) and the number of patients receiving RRT has increased by 3.7% per year (RR 1.037, 95% CI: 1.034–1.039, p < 0.001). If these trends continue, the PACA region will be face with 7371 patients on dialysis and 3891 with a functional renal transplant who will need to be managed in 2030. The two most significant growth rates were the percentage of obese people (RR 1.140, 95% CI: 1.131–1.149, p < 0.001) and those with diabetes (RR 1.070, 95% CI; 1.064–1.075, p < 0.001).ConclusionThis study highlights the increase in the number of ESRD patients over 12 years, with no prospect of stabilization. These findings allow us to anticipate the quality and quantity of care offered and to propose more preventive measures to combat obesity and diabetes.
Highlights
This study describes the time trend of renal replacement therapy for end-stage renal disease (ESRD) in the Provence-Alpes Côte d’Azur region (PACA) between 2004 and 2015, and forecasts up to 2030
Renal Epidemiology and Information Network (REIN) is a tool to support both public health decision-making, evaluation and research related to renal replacement therapy (RRT) for ESRD [5, 6], its data are used in health planning to adjust dialysis supply and demand [9]
Since 2004, the number of new patients has steadily increased by 3.4% per year (Rate ratio (RR) 1.034, 95% Confidential interval (CI): 1.028–1.039) (Table 2)
Summary
This study describes the time trend of renal replacement therapy for end-stage renal disease (ESRD) in the Provence-Alpes Côte d’Azur region (PACA) between 2004 and 2015, and forecasts up to 2030. The management of end-stage renal disease (ESRD) continues to be one of the main public health priorities in France due to the increasing number of patients requiring renal replacement therapy (RRT) [1]. In France, two registries developed and managed by the French Biomedicine Agency include and follow ESRD patients: the French Renal Epidemiology and Information Network (REIN) [5, 6] created in 2001 and specific to dialysis patients, and the CRISTAL registry specific to transplant patients [7, 8] collecting social and medical data for all patients receiving an organ transplant. REIN is a tool to support both public health decision-making, evaluation and research related to RRT for ESRD [5, 6], its data are used in health planning to adjust dialysis supply and demand [9]
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