End-of-life demand is highly volatile and shows unexpected trends

Abstract

Journal of Paramedic PracticeVol. 11, No. 3 CommentEnd-of-life demand is highly volatile and shows unexpected trendsRodney P JonesRodney P JonesEmail for correspondence:E-mail Address: [email protected]Statistical Advisor, Healthcare Analysis & Forecasting, Leominster, UKSearch for more papers by this authorRodney P JonesPublished Online:13 Mar 2019https://doi.org/10.12968/jpar.2019.11.3.122AboutSectionsView articleView Full TextPDF/EPUB ToolsAdd to favoritesDownload CitationsTrack CitationsPermissions ShareShare onFacebookTwitterLinked InEmail View article References Chen R, Yin P, Wang L et al.. Association between ambient temperature and mortality risk and burden: time series study in 272 main Chinese cities. Br Med J. 2018; 363: k3965. https://doi.org/10.1136/bmj.k4036 Google ScholarEkamper P, van Poppel F, van Duin C, Garssen J. 150 Years of temperature-related excess mortality in the Netherlands. Demograph Res. 2009; 21:385–426. https://doi.org/10.4054/DemRes.2009.21.14. http://www.demographic-research.org/Volumes/Vol21/14/ (accessed 25 February 2019) Google ScholarJones R. End of life care and volatility in costs. Brit J Healthc Manage. 2012; 18(7):374–381 Link, Google ScholarJones R. Environmental volatility and healthcare costs. Brit J Healthc Manage. 2013; 19(4): 198–199. Link, Google ScholarJones R. Recurring outbreaks of an infection apparently targeting immune function, and consequent unprecedented growth in medical admission and costs in the United Kingdom: A review. Brit J Med Medical Res. 2015a; 6(8):735–770. https://doi.org/10.9734/BJMMR/2015/14845 Crossref, Google ScholarJones R. Simulated rectangular wave infectious-like events replicate the diversity of time-profiles observed in real-world running 12-month totals of admissions or deaths. FGNAMB 2015b; 1(3):78–79. https://doi.org/10.15761/FGNAMB.1000114 Google ScholarJones R. Rising emergency admissions in the UK and the elephant in the room. Epidemiology: Open Access. 2016; 6(4): 1000261. https://doi.org/10.4172/2161-1165.1000261 Crossref, Google ScholarJones R. Year-to-year variation in deaths in English Output Areas (OA), and the interaction between a presumed infectious agent and influenza in 2015. SMU Med J. 2017. 4(2):37–69. https://tinyurl.com/yczo4pvf (accessed 25 February 2019) Google ScholarJones R. Periods of unexplained higher deaths and medical admissions have occurred previously – but were apparently ignored, misinterpreted or not investigated. Eur J Internal Med. 2018; 40: e18–e20. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ejim.2017.11.004 Crossref, Google ScholarJones R. The nearness to death effect and why NHS pressures are going to intensify. J Para Pract. 2019a; 11(1):28–30 Link, Google ScholarJones R. Ignorance isn't bliss: behind the unequal distribution of end-of-life demand and cost. J Para Pract. 2019b; 11(2):77–79 Link, Google ScholarJones R, Kellet J. The way healthcare is funded is wrong: it should be linked to deaths as well as age, gender and social deprivation. Acute Med. 2018; 17(4):189–193 Google ScholarMarie Curie. Emergency admissions: Data briefing. 2018. https://tinyurl.com/yxvdwykx (accessed 25 February 2019) Google ScholarOffice for National Statistics. Deaths registered monthly in England and Wales. 2018. https://tinyurl.com/ybfk4pk2 (accessed 25 February 2019) Google ScholarTrudeau R. Monthly and daily patterns of death. Health Reports. 1997; 9(1):43–50 Google Scholar FiguresReferencesRelatedDetailsCited byWill the winter of 2019/20 have unusually high service demand? Part 2: StrategyRodney P Jones13 December 2019 | Journal of Paramedic Practice, Vol. 11, No. 12Will the winter of 2019/2020 have unusually high service demand? Part 1: LessonsRodney P Jones5 November 2019 | Journal of Paramedic Practice, Vol. 11, No. 11NHS winter workload and on/off switching of deathsRodney P Jones8 April 2019 | Journal of Paramedic Practice, Vol. 11, No. 4 2 March 2019Volume 11Issue 3ISSN (print): 1759-1376ISSN (online): 2041-9457 Metrics History Published online 13 March 2019 Published in print 2 March 2019 Information© MA Healthcare LimitedPDF download