Abstract
Employing Combination Procedures to Short-Time Eop Prediction A well known problem with Earth Orientation Parameters (EOP) prediction is that a prediction strategy proved to be the best for some testing time span and prediction length may not remain the same for other time intervals. In this paper, we consider possible strategies to combine EOP predictions computed using different analysis techniques to obtain a final prediction with the best accuracy corresponding to the smallest prediction error of input predictions. It was found that this approach is most efficient for ultra-short-term EOP forecast.
Highlights
Prediction of the Earth Orientation Parameters (EOP) is a practically very important and theoretically very interesting task, one of the main fields of activity of operationalEOP services
Our purpose was to perform further investigation of possibility of improving the accuracy of EOP prediction using various combination procedures
To compute n-day ahead prediction we examine the set of predictions made n days ago and select one that predicts today EOP most accurately
Summary
Prediction of the Earth Orientation Parameters (EOP) is a practically very important and theoretically very interesting task, one of the main fields of activity of operationalEOP services. Various methods are developed to compute a highly accurate EOP forecast. All the methods practically used for EOP predictions use various configuration parameters, such as the length of reference interval, the order of polynomial and number of harmonics for least squares adjustment, or the orders of autoregression and moving average for ARIMA. One of the possible ways to achieve this goal is making use of combination procedures applied to a set of predictions made with different methods.
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