Empirická analýza obchodování s opcemi na akcie Škodových závodů 1928-1938

Abstract

Recent findings have shown that the Prague Exchange featured a very active and developed stock options market right until its pre-war closure in September 1938. This paper follows up on extensive research into fragmentary archival resources, aggregating a unique collection of options quotations on the shares of Ĺ koda, the dominant industrial firm and stock in Czechoslovakia. A rigorous review of contemporary literature has been complemented with an empirical analysis including implied volatility measurements, resulting in a detailed appraisal of the market. Even though statistical option-valuation models have already been available and generally known, these were not used by practitioners. Instead, a heuristic approach based on perfect familiarity with intrinsic valuation and hedging as well as time-value drivers, effectively used since the 19th century, has resulted in surprisingly efficient pricing, constrained - rather than by information assymmetries - primarily by transaction costs and, over a relatively brief period in 1932-33, by crisis-related liquidity issues in the market.