Empirical Test of Fama and French Three-Factor Model in the Egyptian Stock Exchange

We test the impact of herding behaviour on the risk pricing in the Egyptian Stock Exchange (EGX) by adding an additional risk factor reflecting herding behaviour to the Fama and French three-factor model. We construct a portfolio to mimic an additional risk factor related to herding behaviour, in addition to the original risk factors in the Fama and French three-factor model. The three-factor model will be tested in its original form and re-tested after adding the herding behaviour factor. The study is based on Hwang and Salmon methodology, in which the state space approach based on Kaman’s filter was used to measure herding behaviour. We used monthly excess stock returns of 50 stocks listed on the EGX from January 2014 to December 2018. The results do not support Fama and French model before and after adding the herding behaviour factor, therefore, there is no effect of herding behaviour on the risk pricing in the Egyptian Stock Exchange.

The Fama and French Three-Factor Model and Leverage: Compatibility with the Modigliani and Miller Propositions

The authors study the Fama and French three-factor (FF-3F) model in relation to a developing market. To this end, they consider Chinese stock markets over the period 1995–2008, which is to say, over a period when these markets are recognized as “developing” markets influenced by speculative activity. The authors find that the model appears to be working as a form of “principal component analysis for the determinants of stock price formation with book-to-market (B/M) as the “variable of choice” on account of that it captures the earnings-to-price (E/P), cash-flow-to-price (C/P) and sales-to-price (S/P) variables while remaining largely uncorrelated with firm size (whereas E/P, C/P and S/P are themselves positively correlated with firm size). The variables, however, are unrelated to risk as represented by market exposure, volatility, or leverage.

This study is focussed on estimating the real interest and inflation sensitivity in Spanish market, proposing an extension of the Stone (1974) two-factor model and controlling for size and growth of the companies [Fama and French (1993) three-factor model], because of its importance in the stock sensitivity shown by previous literature. I also study the classical explanatory factors of the stock sensitivity: leverage and liquidity level of the firms. The Spanish stock response is similar to the response in other markets, and the ‘size’ is higher than ‘growth’ effect.

By conducting ordinary least square estimations using the Fama and French Three-Factor and Five-Factor models on thirty U.S. based industry portfolios, the significant rate of all the variables is compared. Using the comparison, the impacts of the COVID-19 Pandemic on the markets and the Fama and French models are significant. As a result, the significance level of all the independent variables has increased during the COVID-19 Pandemic. The Five-Factor model fares a more substantial increase in efficiency during the Pandemic, and some variables, such as HML and CMA, see tremendous changes. The market becomes less sophisticated during the Pandemic, and the Fama and French Five-Factor model may be more suitable for estimation under certain market environments, contrary to many previous studies.

How Domestic is the Fama and French Three-Factor Model? An Application to the Euro Area

Abstract: 
 Objective: In this paper, we test and compare the explanatory power of the two asset pricing models: the conventional CAPM and the empirical Fama and French three-factor model (1993) in the Moroccan stock market.
 Method: According to the Fama and French (1993) methodology, we analyze monthly data covering the sample period from July 2012 to June 2020.
 Results: The main findings support the superiority of the Fama and French three-factor model. The mimic risk factors pertained to the size and the book-to-market ratio have a significant role in explaining the Moroccan returns. Moreover, results show the existence of weak value effect but significant size effect. Despite the preeminence of the Fama and French model in describing the time-series of sock returns, the model leaves an unexplained fraction of the variation of Moroccan stock returns.
 Originality/Relevance: Our study is the first to compare the two popular models in the financial literature in the Moroccan stock which is an emerging market. Thus, our study corroborates others studies conducted in emerging markets and confirms the hypothesis that the characteristics of those markets impact the explanatory power of asset pricing models.

Purpose This study aims to investigate the market timing strategy in different market conditions (i.e. up, down, normal and in-financial-crisis situation) in the emerging market of Pakistan over the period 1995 to 2015. Furthermore, this study tests the validity of the capital asset pricing model (CAPM) and Fama and French model. Design/methodology/approach This study considers monthly stock returns of 167 firms and constructs six different portfolios on the basis of different size and book to market ratio. The Treynor and Mazuy model is used to capture the market timing strategy. Findings The results indicate evidence of the market timing in normal market conditions. However, there is less supportive evidence of market timing in up-market, down-market and in-financial-crisis situations. This study also confirms the validity of the capital asset pricing model and Fama and French three-factor model with strong support of value premium and size premium in the stock market. Practical implications The findings of this study are helpful to companies in estimating the cost of issuing equity more accurately. The investors can use market timing to make their investment in a more better and profitable manner. Originality/value Unlike other previous studies, this study considers an extended period to test the validity of the capital asset pricing model and Fama and French model. In addition, this study is novel in testing the marketing timing of the firms in the context of emerging economy of Pakistan.

The Fama and French Three-Factor Model in Developing Markets: Evidence from the Chinese Markets (1995-2008)

After the 2007/9 financial crisis, liquidity risk became the most dreaded financial risk of all times. However, our modern finance theories are modeled on the premises that markets are frictionless and hence liquidity plays no role, yet there is a plethora of literature that attest to the fact that liquidity is a cost that needs to be priced. This confirms the fact that markets are indeed full of friction and therefore, liquidity needs to be modeled accordingly. In this paper, a time-series regression approach is adopted to investigate the relationship between stock illiquidity and stock excess return on the JSE. The basis of the methodology followed in this study is that of Fama and MacBeth's (1973) cross-sectional multiple regression analysis. Specifically, Fama and French three-factor model plus liquidity is employed to test empirically the relationship between stock excess returns and liquidity together with other known, important time-series determinants of stock returns, such as beta, size, and book-to-market ratio. Liquidity is then added to the three factor model as the fourth factor thus, in addition to the excess return on the market. The results from this study show that liquidity is an important factor in pricing returns on the JSE as the stock excess returns are positively related to illiquidity and the relationship is significant. More specifically, the study revealed that the expected excess returns are positively and significantly related to stock systematic risk as measured by beta. This was the case across all the portfolios that were investigated. The three factor model shows a negative relationship though not significant. The there-factor model plus liquidity showed a positive relationship but not significant. Given the exhibited importance of liquidity in determining stock return, stock liquidity should be incorporated in dynamic stochastic general equilibrium models since markets in reality are not frictionless. Given that highly illiquid stocks are associated with higher expected returns as compared to liquid stocks, the conversional finance theories should be revised to reflect this new insight as this is a confirmation that markets have friction, thus liquidity plays an important role in the modeling of required return.

Emerging stock market returns have been extensively studied by the academic community over the past two decades. However, there is still no consensus among the researchers and practitioners as to which asset pricing models should be used to explain returns in these markets. The fundamental objective of the study is to evaluate the power and performance of multifactor asset pricing models (three-and four-factor models) over the traditional one-factor capital asset pricing model (CAPM), using the data from one of the fastest growing emerging markets: India. The study, using a large sample data of 470 listed stocks over a period of 16 years stretching from January 1997 to March 2013, evaluates the relevance of Fama and French three-factor model as well as liquidity augmented four-factor model in explaining the stock return variations in the Indian stock market. The study employs time series regression approach to examine the impact of market risk, size risk, value risk and liquidity risk on stock returns. The overall results of the study provide support to the multidimensional nature of risk and suggest the use of multifactor asset pricing models for consideration in investment decisions. Both Fama and French three-factor model and liquidity augmented four-factor model were found to be superior to traditional one-factor CAPM, though liquidity increased four-factor model was found to be slightly better in explaining Indian stock returns as compared with Fama and French three-factor model.

Timor-Leste is a new country still in the process of economic development and does not yet have a capital market for stock and bond investments. These two asset classes have been invested in international capital markets such as the US, the UK, Japan, and Europe. We examine the performance of the capital asset pricing model (CAPM) and the Fama–French three-factor and five-factor models on the excess returns of Timor-Leste’s equity and bond investments in the international market over the period 2006 to 2019. Our empirical results show that the market factor (MKT) is positively and significantly associated with the excess returns of the CAPM and the Fama–French three-factor and five-factor models. Moreover, the two variables Small Minus Big (SMB) as a size factor and High Minus Low (HML) as a value factor have a negative and significant effect on the excess returns in the Fama–French three-factor model and five-factor model. Further analysis revealed that the explanatory power of the Fama–French five-factor model is that the Robust Minus Weak (RMW) factor as a profitability factor is positively and significantly associated with excess returns, while the Conservative Minus Aggressive (CMA) factor as an investment factor is insignificant.

Asset Pricing Models in China Stock Market

Using a large international equity market database that has not been previously used for such a purpose, this paper documents that value (i.e., high book-to-market ) stocks outperform growth (i.e., low book-to-market ) stocks, on average, in most countries during the January 1975 - December 1995 period, both absolutely and after adjusting for risk. The international evidence confirms the findings of previous work reported for the U.S.. For 1975-1995, the annual difference between the average returns on portfolios of high and low book-to-market stocks is 12.94% in North America, 10.42% in Europe, 17.26% in Pacific-Rim per year, and value stocks outperform growth stocks in 17 out of 18 national capital markets. Our analysis also shows that a three-factor model explains most of the cross-sectional variation in average returns on industry portfolios across countries and that the superior performance of the value investing strategy, documented in this study, is a manifestation of size and book-to-market effects. These results are consistent with those reported by Fama and French (1994, 1996) that show that the value-growth pattern in stock returns is largely explained by a three-factor asset pricing model. Our results suggest that the Fama and French (1996) three-factor asset pricing model is not limited to the U.S. stock market.

This study examines the explainability, validity, and applicability of multi-factor models in explaining the returns of Green (eco-friendly), Grey (neutral), and Red (environmentally harmful) EU securities. We apply the Fama–French three-factor and five-factor models, along with the Carhart four-factor model, to analyze changes in risk exposures and adjusted abnormal returns (alphas) before and after the 2009 global financial crisis (GFC). Green and Grey securities exhibit positive SMB loadings, while Grey’s HML shifts from negative to positive over time. Both Green and Red securities show positive SMB and HML factors but negative alphas in the second period, indicating systematic underperformance. Additionally, for Red assets, momentum (MOM), profitability (RMW), and investment (CMA) factors are positive and significant in the first period but become insignificant or negative later. These findings highlight structural shifts in factor exposures and contribute to the ongoing debate on the most suitable classical asset pricing framework for environmentally classified assets, offering insights into the effectiveness of traditional factor models in different classes of environmental assets in finance. Lastly, the three-factor model better captures the common variation in Green and Grey asset returns. Specifically, the 4-factor model and the HML Devil factor prove to be more effective in explaining returns for Red securities.