Empirical Study on the Grain Output Based on Regression Analysis

Abstract

Based on a literature review of influencing factors and forecasting methods for grain production, the empirical analysis of the influencing factors of China’s grain output is performed using the full subset regression method, the ridge regression method, and the LASSO regression method. The results show that (1) the increase in the sown area of grain crops is the main reason for the increase in grain output, (2) the use of agricultural fertilizers and the increase in rural electricity consumption are the driving factors for the increase in grain output, (3) the impact of total power of agricultural machinery is limited, and (4) natural disasters have a certain negative impact on food production.