Abstract

Urban rail transit (URT) develops fast in China. Because its investment is enormous, its construction period is long and its influence is far-reaching. Therefore, it is important to analyze sustainable development of URT. The reasonable plan of URT is the key to setting up traffic transit system of sustainable development, one of the important tasks is to estimate scheduling of URT to ensure the science and feasibility of its construction. What this paper studies is scheduling of URT in Wuhan. Based on considering the transit demand in different stage which include short-term, middle- term and long-term, by constructing four stages transit demand forecast model, simulates the characteristic of outgoing of residents to predict the stream of people and the outgoing mode of each area, surveys the passenger flow of each line and the matching of other rail transit network It considers the construction scheduling from the passenger flow income and the cost benefit especially, evaluates existed network planning objectively, and studies quantitative criterion deeply to realize the comparative selection and optimization of the scheduling. Besides, we combines the financing ability and comprehensive strength in accordance with the latest information of URT planning, studies the construction scheduling of URT network planning deeply.

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