Empirical prediction of the onset dates of South China Sea summer monsoon

Abstract

The onset of South China Sea summer monsoon (SCSSM) signifies the commencement of the wet season over East Asia. Predicting the SCSSM onset date is of significant importance. In this study, we establish two different statistical models, namely the physical–empirical model (PEM) and the spatial–temporal projection model (STPM) to predict the SCSSM onset. The PEM is constructed from the seasonal prediction perspective. Observational diagnoses reveal that the early onset of the SCSSM is preceded by (a) a warming tendency in middle and lower troposphere (850–500 hPa) over central Siberia from January to March, (b) a La Nina-like zonal dipole sea surface temperature pattern over the tropical Pacific in March, and (c) a dipole sea level pressure pattern with negative center in subtropics and positive center over high latitude of Southern Hemisphere in January. The PEM built on these predictors achieves a cross-validated reforecast temporal correlation coefficient (TCC) skill of 0.84 for the period of 1979–2004, and an independent forecast TCC skill of 0.72 for the period 2005–2014. The STPM is built on the extended-range forecast perspective. Pentad data are used to predict a zonal wind index over the South China Sea region. Similar to PEM, the STPM is constructed using 1979–2004 data. Based on the forecasted zonal wind index, the independent forecast of the SCSSM onset dates achieves a TCC skill of 0.90 for 2005–2014. The STPM provides more detailed information for the intraseasonal evolution during the period of the SCSSM onset (pentad 25–35). The two models proposed herein are expected to facilitate the real-time prediction of the SCSSM onset.