Empirical models of transit demand with walk access/egress for planning transit oriented developments around commuter rail stations in the Greater Toronto and Hamilton Area

Abstract

This paper explores the relationship between characteristics of Transit Oriented Development (TOD) and passenger transit demand with walk access/egress. Two separate Log-linear Cobb- Douglas regression models are estimated for predicting transit ridership with walk access/egress as a function of specific land-use and station-level attributes around commuter rail stations in the Greater Toronto and Hamilton Area (GTHA). The empirical models are estimated using passenger survey data collected by the regional transit authority in the GTHA. The regional transit system considered in this research is GO Transit which has stations distributed across the GTHA. The first estimated model is a trip production model that predicts the number of daily trips produced per GO Transit station with walk as the access mode to the station. A trip attraction model is also estimated for predicting the daily trips attracted to a GO Transit station with walk as the egress mode from the station. The empirical models reveal that the station-level trip production via walk access is significantly associated with population density and walkability in the vicinity of the station, as well as the station’s frequency of trains, number of bus feeder lines and utilization of parking spaces. Trip attraction by rail via walk egress at a GO Transit station is shown to be highly related to employment density, frequency of trains, and the relative network distance from the station to the central business district. A noteworthy finding with policy implications is that the frequency and number of bus feeder lines to a station is negatively associated with trip production via walk access. The study results can form the basis of transportation and land use policies aimed at implementing successful TODs.