Abstract
In recent decades, the average global temperature has risen rapidly, due to the modern society activities. Hence, the United Nations has suggested that an increase of 1.5°C above the reference temperature corresponding to the beginning of industrial revolution era must be avoided. One proposal to mitigate this global warming is the migration towards green energy generation systems, however, suitable predictions of electricity demand are required to properly manage the implementation and operation of hybrid energy generation systems with high penetration of renewable energies. In this paper, a simple mathematical model based on sinusoidal functions which consider the normal time periods of the society like daily, weekly, monthly, and annual is proposed for the electricity demand in Mexico. The model parameters were obtained from the historical data from 2017 to 2021, furthermore, the model was used to estimate the electricity demand for the year 2022 as a demonstration of its usefulness, obtaining a mean absolute error of 0.9% in the whole year period. The proposed model is simple and can be used to reproduce and estimate the electricity demand of the national interconnected system.
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