Empirical estimate of forestation-induced precipitation changes in Europe

Abstract

Land-cover changes can affect the climate by altering the water and energy balance of the land surface. Numerous modelling studies have indicated that alterations at the land surface can result in considerable changes in precipitation. Yet land-cover-induced precipitation changes remain largely unconstrained by observations. Here we use an observation-based continental-scale statistical model to show that forestation of rain-fed agricultural land in Europe triggers substantial changes in precipitation. Locally, we find an increase in precipitation following forestation, in particular in winter, which is supported by a paired rain-gauge analysis. In addition, forests are estimated to increase downwind precipitation in most regions during summer. By contrast, the downwind effect in winter is positive in coastal areas but near neutral and negative in Continental and Northern Europe, respectively. The combined local and non-local effects of a realistic reforestation scenario, constrained by sustainability safeguards, are estimated to increase summer precipitation by 7.6 ± 6.7% on average over Europe (0.13 ± 0.11 mm d–1), potentially offsetting a substantial part of the projected precipitation decrease from climate change. We therefore conclude that land-cover-induced alterations of precipitation should be considered when developing land-management strategies for climate change adaptation and mitigation. Forestation over Europe triggers substantial local and downwind precipitation changes, according to results from an observation-based continental-scale statistical model.