Empirical Equations for the Prediction of PGA, PGV, and Spectral Accelerations in Europe, the Mediterranean Region, and the Middle East

Abstract

The true performance of ground-motion prediction equations is often not fully appreciated until they are used in practice for seismic hazard analyses and applied to a wide range of scenarios and exceedance levels. This has been the case for equations published recently for the prediction of peak ground velocity (PGV), peak ground acceleration (PGA), and response spectral ordinates in Europe, the Middle East, and the Mediterranean (Akkar and Bommer 2007a,b). This paper presents an update that corrects the shortcomings identified in those equations, which are primarily, but not exclusively, related to the model for the ground-motion variability. Strong-motion recording networks in Europe and the Middle East were first installed much later than in the United States and Japan but have grown considerably over the last four decades. The databanks of strong-motion data have grown in parallel with the accelerograph networks, and in addition to national collections there have been concerted efforts over more than two decades to develop and maintain a European database of associated metadata ( e.g. , Ambraseys et al. 2004). As the database of strong-motion records from Europe, the Mediterranean region, and the Middle East has expanded, there have been two distinct trends in terms of developing empirical ground-motion prediction equations (GMPEs): equations derived from a large dataset covering several countries, generally of moderate-to-high seismicity; and equations derived from local databanks for application within national borders. We refer to the former as pan-European models, noting that this is for expedience since the equations are really derived for southern Europe, the Maghreb (North Africa), and the active areas of the Middle East. The history of the development of both pan-European and national equations is discussed by Bommer et al. (2010), who also review studies that consider the arguments for and against the existence of consistent regional …