Empirical applications of dynamic spatial interaction models

Abstract

A key theoretical development in the history of spatial interaction modelling was provided by B. Harris and A. G. Wilson (1978). They were the first to embed spatial interaction models within a dynamic framework to test ideas concerning the development and evolution of urban spatial structures. Many of these tests were conducted through “numerical experiments”. The aim of this paper is to review progress with real empirical applications of dynamic spatial interaction models. Three very different case studies are presented. First, the use of the models to replicate historical structural change in retail development in Leeds, U.K., since the 1960s. Second, the use of the models to evaluate the future structural stability of particular bank branches in Toronto, Canada. Third, the use of the models to explore future likely change in education provision in Leeds, U.K., given the new market conditions prevalent in contemporary U.K. education. These case studies will show that the dynamic model can be a useful applied tool in understanding and shaping past and future urban structures. However, such detailed empirical work also leads to new theoretical developments of the original dynamic models.