Abstract
The relationship between tourism development and economic growth has been a hot topic in the field of tourism economy in recent years, and whether there is a long-term equilibrium relationship between tourism development variables and economic variables (usually GDP) is also a hot topic. By identifying the long-term equilibrium relationship between two variables, we can find the quantitative variation law (generally effect) of one variable with the other. Based on the vector autoregression of the time series data of China's tourism development from 2000 to 2019, it is found that there is a long-term equilibrium relationship between China's tourism foreign exchange income and domestic tourism gross income and their respective GDP, and the long-term effect is 99% respectively. Through the establishment of the VAR model for the development of China's tourism industry and economic growth, in the long run, they have a balanced relationship of mutual promotion, so as to further guide the development of China's tourism.
Highlights
Researchers have discussed the relationship between tourism and economic growth according to the actual situation of tourism development in different regions and regions.The main research methods are as follows: first, empirical measurement is carried out by constructing mathematical models, including input-output model, TSA tourism satellite account, vector autoregressive (VAR) model, co-integration and Granger causality test, variance decomposition, impulse response and other measurement methods
The study concluded that there is a long-term equilibrium relationship between tourism development and economic growth, and tourism development has a one-way Granger for overall economic growth.The conclusion supports the hypothesis of tourism-led economic growth.Brida (2008) used the co-integration test, VAR model, Granger causality test and impulse response function to make an empirical analysis of the quarterly data of Mexico from 1975 to 2007, and the results showed that there was a co-integration vector between the two, and the development of tourism industry was a one-way Granger cause of economic growth.Based on similar test methods, Belloumi (2008), Cardenas-Garcia, P
A country's gross domestic product is the most direct reflection of its economic development of an indicator.Tourism revenue is the most direct indicator of the development of such a closely related industry as tourism.when studying the relationship between the development of China's tourism industry and economic growth, two indicators are selected for analysis by referring to the research of relevant scholars and combining with the actual situation of China.China's economic growth is reflected by gross domestic product (GDP), which is denoted as GDP.The total income of the tourism industry is taken as the index to evaluate the development of the tourism industry, which is denoted as tourism revenue (TR)
Summary
Researchers have discussed the relationship between tourism and economic growth according to the actual situation of tourism development in different regions and regions.The main research methods are as follows: first, empirical measurement is carried out by constructing mathematical models, including input-output model, TSA tourism satellite account, VAR model, co-integration and Granger causality test, variance decomposition, impulse response and other measurement methods. In the studies on the relationship between tourism industry and economic growth, scholars have drawn different conclusions through empirical research methods such as data analysis, but the mainstream view is that the two have a significant promoting role. Using the multivariate VAR model, Katircioglu (2009), Kim et al (2006) reached the same conclusion as Dritsakis (2004) in their respective studies on Taiwan and Malaysia of China.Balaguer, Cantavella-Jorda (2002) and Dritsakis (2004) put forward the theory of tourism-led economic growth hypothesis, and conducted empirical tests with the data of Spain. The study concluded that there is a long-term equilibrium relationship between tourism development and economic growth, and tourism development has a one-way Granger for overall economic growth.The conclusion supports the hypothesis of tourism-led economic growth.Brida (2008) used the co-integration test, VAR model, Granger causality test and impulse response function to make an empirical analysis of the quarterly data of Mexico from 1975 to 2007, and the results showed that there was a co-integration vector between the two, and the development of tourism industry was a one-way Granger cause of economic growth.The second is to discuss the relationship between tourism and economic growth by calculating correlation coefficient, elasticity coefficient, contribution rate and grey correlation degree.Due to the difficulty in obtaining basic data and the poor continuity of calculation results, these methods have their own advantages and disadvantages.From the perspective of research scale, on the one hand, it focuses on the national and provincial level, on the other hand, it focuses on the prefecture-level research
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