Empirical analysis of the impact of cigarette excise taxes on cigarette consumption: estimates from recent state-level data

Abstract

The adverse health effects from cigarette smoking account for an estimated 443,000 deaths annually in the U.S. Given this circumstance, this study has two objectives. First, it uses a state-level panel data set for a recent time frame to investigate the impact of federal plus state cigarette excise taxes (along with a variety of other factors) on the aggregate consumption of cigarettes. The study adopts a state-level panel data series spanning the period 2002 through 2007, which is the most recent panel for which data for all of the variables are available. Consistent with a number of previous studies, the PLS estimates in this study find that the higher the cigarette excise tax, the lower the aggregate volume of cigarettes consumed. Of course, this outcome does not address the practical problem of the substitution of high nicotine cigarettes for low nicotine cigarettes in the presence of a significant cigarette tax hike. This circumstance leads to the second objective of this study, namely, to propose a general template for a different kind of cigarette excise tax, one that is tied directly to each cigarette brand’s nicotine and tar content.